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Hammarby Talang vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Karlberg

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.6%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.2%1-18.3%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.4%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 69.0% 1.45 -19.5%

Draw 21.7% 22.2% 4.50 -1.4%

Away win 22.9% 19.2% 5.20 +11.5%

Over 2.5 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Over 3.5 40.4% 46.5% 2.15 -13.1%

BTTS 60.2% 64.5% 1.55 -6.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.4% 1.40 -7.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.2%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 4.8%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang2.3

Karlberg1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.44

KARLBERG · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -19.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.4%

Karlberg (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Karlberg 23%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Hammarby Talang and 1.2 for Karlberg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Hammarby Talang vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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