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Umeå FC vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:45

Umeå FC

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vasalund

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.9%1-110.8%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.8%3-14.3%3-23.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Draw 23.3% 28.2% 3.55 -10.4%

Away win 41.7% 36.4% 2.75 +14.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 49.5% 2.02 -25.9%

BTTS 60.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.7% 61.0% 1.64 -25.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.4% 1.91 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.7%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–2 5.4%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå FC1.6

Vasalund1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ FC · PPG 1.00

VASALUND · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Umeå FC (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.4%

Vasalund (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå FC face Vasalund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå FC a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Vasalund 42%, so Vasalund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Umeå FC and 1.6 for Vasalund (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå FC are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Vasalund. This match finished 3-2.

Umeå FC vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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