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Assyriska FF vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Assyriska FF

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gefle IF

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.2%0-22.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.6%1-25.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-17.2%4+-25.2%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 51.3% 1.95 +7.2%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Over 2.5 66.4% 59.9% 1.67 +10.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 38.2% 2.62 +14.0%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Assyriska FF2.4

Gefle IF1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 1.38

GEFLE IF · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Assyriska FF (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +7.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Gefle IF (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Assyriska FF face Gefle IF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Assyriska FF a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Gefle IF 23%, so Assyriska FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Assyriska FF and 1.4 for Gefle IF (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Assyriska FF are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.78 for Gefle IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Assyriska FF vs Gefle IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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