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Järfälla vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Järfälla

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Assyriska FF

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.0%0-27.2%0-34.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.5%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.3%2-34.3%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 37.0% 2.70 -22.6%

Draw 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Away win 55.6% 46.5% 2.15 +19.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 47.6% 2.10 -17.5%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

Away O1.5 56.9% 57.8% 1.73 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.8%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 0–2✓ 7.2%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Järfälla1.3

Assyriska FF2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄRFÄLLA · PPG 0.75

ASSYRISKA FF · PPG 1.33

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Järfälla (H) 23.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.6%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

Assyriska FF (A) 55.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Järfälla face Assyriska FF in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Järfälla a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Assyriska FF 56%, so Assyriska FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Järfälla and 2.1 for Assyriska FF (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Järfälla are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.33 for Assyriska FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Järfälla vs Assyriska FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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