Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Stocksund vs Arlanda

Stocksund vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arlanda

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.4%0-24.5%0-33.9%0-4+4.8%1 1-02.2%1-15.9%1-27.7%1-36.7%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.6%2-35.8%2-4+7.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.9%3-23.8%3-33.3%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.8%4+-22.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

Draw 19.5% 27.8% 3.60 -17.9%

Away win 50.8% 51.3% 1.95 -0.9%

Over 2.5 72.0% 69.4% 1.44 +3.7%

Over 3.5 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

BTTS 69.2% 71.4% 1.40 -3.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.3% 2.03 -0.7%

Away O1.5 67.8% 61.0% 1.64 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.2%

A 51% / xG 1.7-2.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–1 5.0%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund1.7

Arlanda2.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.78

ARLANDA · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.5%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.9%

Arlanda (A) 50.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 30% chance, the draw 20% and Arlanda 51%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stocksund and 2.6 for Arlanda (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.75 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Stocksund vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions