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Hammarby Talang vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Piteå

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.4%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-110.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 85.5% 1.17 -19.1%

Draw 16.4% 16.7% 6.00 -1.0%

Away win 14.5% 8.3% 12.00 +44.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 54.6% 1.83 -27.9%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 82.0% 1.22 -20.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 69% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–1✓ 6.4%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang2.7

Piteå0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.50

PITEÅ · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.94 for Home, form 1.50 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -19.1%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -1.0%

Piteå (A) 14.5%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face Piteå in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Piteå 14%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Hammarby Talang and 0.8 for Piteå (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Piteå. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +47.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Hammarby Talang vs Piteå Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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