Leagues / SPAIN / Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Primera División RFEF - Group 1
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 60 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.0%
1X2
24/60
53.3%
O/U 2.5
32/60
61.7%
BTTS
37/60
46.7%
Exact score
28/60
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
32
Settled
56.2%
Hit rate
18/32
1.85
Avg odds
+1.2%
ROI
+0.4u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=16 62.5% HIT · AVG 1.82 · +14.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=11 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.86 · -23.3% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.94 · +13.2% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-5.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+27.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
21
Bets
57%
Hit
-0.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 6 PICKS · 4 HIT · 2 MISS
23 MAY Arenas Club vs Zamora BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS23 MAY Unionistas vs Racing Ferrol — NO PICK 3–2 —23 MAY Pontevedra vs Real Aviles Over 2.5 +0% 2–2 HIT23 MAY Ponferradina vs Athletic B. B — NO PICK 1–0 —23 MAY Ourense CF vs Tenerife — NO PICK 2–1 —23 MAY Osasuna B vs Merida — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY Lugo vs Arenteiro — NO PICK 0–0 —23 MAY Guadalajara vs Real Madrid B BTTS 2–2 HIT23 MAY Cacereno vs Talavera CF — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY Barakaldo vs Celta Vigo B BTTS -12% 1–1 HIT17 MAY Athletic B. B vs Guadalajara — NO PICK 2–1 —17 MAY Zamora vs Cacereno Home +31% 1–2 MISS17 MAY Arenteiro vs Ponferradina — NO PICK 0–1 —17 MAY Talavera CF vs Ourense CF — NO PICK 0–0 —17 MAY Real Madrid B vs Arenas Club Over 2.5 -11% 3–3 HIT