Leagues / SPAIN / Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Primera División RFEF - Group 1
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
Upcoming Primera División RFEF - Group 1 predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT19:15 Ponferradina vs Lugo Over 2.5 50% 2.45 +23%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 64 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
37.5%
1X2
24/64
51.6%
O/U 2.5
33/64
62.5%
BTTS
40/64
48.4%
Exact score
31/64
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
56.2%
Hit rate
9/16
1.95
Avg odds
+5.1%
ROI
+0.8u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=9 44.4% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -24.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · -1.0% ROI
BTTS · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · +100.3% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+5.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+19.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
8
Bets
63%
Hit
+9.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 4 PICKS · 2 HIT · 2 MISS
30 AUG Unionistas de Salamanca vs Lugo BTTS 1–3 HIT29 AUG Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol BTTS +1% 1–1 HIT29 AUG Zamora vs Athletic Club II Home -15% 1–1 MISS28 AUG Real Avilés vs Pontevedra BTTS -2% 0–1 MISSMay 2026 // 4 PICKS · 3 HIT · 1 MISS
23 MAY Osasuna B vs Merida — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY Lugo vs Arenteiro — NO PICK 0–0 —23 MAY Guadalajara vs Real Madrid B BTTS 2–2 HIT23 MAY Cacereno vs Talavera CF — NO PICK 1–2 —23 MAY Arenas Club vs Zamora BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS23 MAY Barakaldo vs Celta Vigo B BTTS -12% 1–1 HIT23 MAY Unionistas vs Racing Ferrol — NO PICK 3–2 —23 MAY Pontevedra vs Real Aviles Over 2.5 +0% 2–2 HIT23 MAY Ponferradina vs Athletic B. B — NO PICK 1–0 —23 MAY Ourense CF vs Tenerife — NO PICK 2–1 —17 MAY Athletic B. B vs Guadalajara — NO PICK 2–1 —