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Zamora vs Athletic Club II Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:15

Zamora

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Athletic Club II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 46.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.9%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.6%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Draw 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Away win 27.2% 25.0% 4.00 +5.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.0% 2.50 +0.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora1.4

Athletic Club II1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA · PPG 1.72

ATHLETIC CLUB II · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zamora (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Athletic Club II (A) 27.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora face Athletic Club II in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Athletic Club II 27%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zamora and 1.0 for Athletic Club II (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.17 for Athletic Club II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Zamora vs Athletic Club II Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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