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Ponferradina vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Ponferradina

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.0%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 75.2% 1.33 -36.8%

Draw 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

Away win 24.1% 10.0% 10.00 +84.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Over 3.5 14.7% 26.0% 3.85 -26.0%

BTTS 48.6% 40.0% 2.50 +21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–0✓ 16.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponferradina1.3

Athletic B. B0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.67

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Ponferradina (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -36.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.2%

Athletic B. B (A) 24.1%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +84.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponferradina face Athletic B. B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponferradina a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic B. B 24%, so Ponferradina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ponferradina and 0.8 for Athletic B. B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponferradina are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.06 for Athletic B. B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +84.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Ponferradina vs Athletic B. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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