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Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Arenas Getxo

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.1%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Draw 26.8% 35.7% 2.80 -15.0%

Away win 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 39.2% 36.4% 2.75 +7.8%

Away O1.5 30.7% 36.4% 2.75 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenas Getxo1.4

Racing Ferrol1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENAS GETXO · PPG 1.86

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arenas Getxo (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.0%

Racing Ferrol (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenas Getxo face Racing Ferrol in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenas Getxo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Racing Ferrol 27%, so Arenas Getxo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arenas Getxo and 1.0 for Racing Ferrol (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenas Getxo are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.21 for Racing Ferrol. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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