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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Unionistas de Salamanca

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lugo

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.8%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.3%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 29.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unionistas de Salamanca1.7

Lugo1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIONISTAS DE SALAMANCA · PPG 1.75

LUGO · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unionistas de Salamanca (H) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lugo (A) 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Unionistas de Salamanca face Lugo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unionistas de Salamanca a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Lugo 29%, so Unionistas de Salamanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Unionistas de Salamanca and 1.2 for Lugo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unionistas de Salamanca are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.31 for Lugo. This match finished 1-3.

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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