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Athletic B. B vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Guadalajara

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-110.6%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-18.2%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic B. B1.2

Guadalajara0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.50

GUADALAJARA · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic B. B (H) 45.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guadalajara (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic B. B face Guadalajara in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic B. B a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Guadalajara 25%, so Athletic B. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Athletic B. B and 0.9 for Guadalajara (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic B. B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Guadalajara. This match finished 2-1.

Athletic B. B vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions