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Pontevedra vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Pontevedra

PPG 1.72 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Aviles

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.7%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.4%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Draw 25.5% 29.0% 3.45 -7.2%

Away win 22.6% 22.7% 4.40 -0.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Over 3.5 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontevedra1.7

Real Aviles0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.72

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Pontevedra (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.2%

Real Aviles (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontevedra face Real Aviles in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontevedra a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Real Aviles 23%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pontevedra and 0.9 for Real Aviles (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontevedra are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.22 for Real Aviles. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Pontevedra vs Real Aviles Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions