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Barakaldo vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Barakaldo

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Celta Vigo B

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 52.4% 1.91 -11.2%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 25.8% 23.8% 4.20 +5.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Over 3.5 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barakaldo1.4

Celta Vigo B1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BARAKALDO · PPG 2.22

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.22) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Barakaldo (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Celta Vigo B (A) 25.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barakaldo face Celta Vigo B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barakaldo a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Celta Vigo B 26%, so Barakaldo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barakaldo and 1.0 for Celta Vigo B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barakaldo are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.67 for Celta Vigo B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Barakaldo vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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