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Guadalajara vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Guadalajara

PPG 1.39 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Madrid B

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.3%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-17.9%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 37.3% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara1.3

Real Madrid B1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA · PPG 1.39

REAL MADRID B · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara (H) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Madrid B (A) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara face Real Madrid B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Real Madrid B 37%, so Real Madrid B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guadalajara and 1.4 for Real Madrid B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.06 for Real Madrid B. This match finished 2-2.

Guadalajara vs Real Madrid B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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