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Lugo vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Lugo

PPG 1.61 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arenteiro

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-110.6%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.4%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 71.4% 1.40 -35.2%

Draw 30.1% 25.6% 3.90 +17.4%

Away win 23.5% 12.9% 7.75 +49.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 54.6% 1.83 -35.9%

Over 3.5 12.0% 33.3% 3.00 -38.4%

BTTS 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.8%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugo1.2

Arenteiro0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGO · PPG 1.61

ARENTEIRO · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.61) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

Lugo (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.2%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +17.4%

Arenteiro (A) 23.5%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +49.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugo face Arenteiro in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugo a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Arenteiro 24%, so Lugo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lugo and 0.7 for Arenteiro (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugo are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.44 for Arenteiro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Lugo vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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