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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Group 1 - 38
Estadio Anxo Carro· Lugo
Saturday, May 23, 2026
16:30
Lugo
PPG 1.61
0-0
HIT MostLikelyScore
Arenteiro
PPG 0.44
Away· +49.3%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
46.3%
Odds: 1.40
EV: -35.2%
Draw
30.1%
Odds: 3.90
EV: +17.4%
Away
23.5%
Odds: 7.75
EV: +49.3%
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
35.0%
Odds: 1.83
-35.9%
Over 3.5
12.0%
Odds: 3.00
-38.4%
BTTS
46.8%
Odds: 2.00
-6.4%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✔
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
1-1
✘
4th
2-0
✘
5th
0-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Lugo
1.18
Arenteiro
0.69
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.61) vs P(Home)=46.3%