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Real Avilés vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Real Avilés

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pontevedra

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.3%0-26.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 37.7% 2.65 +1.8%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 34.9% 39.2% 2.55 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1✓ 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Avilés1.2

Pontevedra1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILÉS · PPG 1.25

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Avilés (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +1.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Pontevedra (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Avilés face Pontevedra in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Avilés a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Pontevedra 35%, so Real Avilés are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Avilés and 1.2 for Pontevedra (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Avilés are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.42 for Pontevedra. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Avilés vs Pontevedra Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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