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Ourense CF vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Ourense CF

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tenerife

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-116.8%0-211.0%0-34.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.6%2-14.7%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 48.8% 2.05 -30.0%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 46.0% 29.4% 3.40 +56.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 15.3% 25.0% 4.00 -23.3%

BTTS 48.6% 52.6% 1.90 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.8%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–2 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ourense CF0.7

Tenerife1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OURENSE CF · PPG 1.56

TENERIFE · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.56) vs Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

Ourense CF (H) 24.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.0%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Tenerife (A) 46.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +56.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ourense CF face Tenerife in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ourense CF a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Tenerife 46%, so Tenerife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ourense CF and 1.3 for Tenerife (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ourense CF are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.89 for Tenerife. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Ourense CF vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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