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Arenas Club vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Arenas Club

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zamora

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.5%0-26.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.8%1-112.8%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-17.8%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.1%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Over 3.5 24.6% 26.7% 3.75 -4.7%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0✓ 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenas Club1.2

Zamora1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 2.00

ZAMORA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Arenas Club (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Zamora (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenas Club face Zamora in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenas Club a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Zamora 37%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arenas Club and 1.3 for Zamora (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenas Club are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Zamora. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Arenas Club vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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