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Unionistas vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Unionistas

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-110.0%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 24.5% 26.0% 3.85 -3.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 17.9% 27.0% 3.70 -20.3%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unionistas1.3

Racing Ferrol0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.83

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Unionistas (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Racing Ferrol (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unionistas face Racing Ferrol in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unionistas a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Racing Ferrol 25%, so Unionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Unionistas and 0.9 for Racing Ferrol (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unionistas are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.11 for Racing Ferrol. This match finished 3-2.

Unionistas vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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