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Cacereno vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Cacereno

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Talavera CF

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.7%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.6%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 23.8% 4.20 +81.0%

Draw 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away win 26.1% 55.6% 1.80 -31.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 14.9% 25.6% 3.90 -25.1%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cacereno1.1

Talavera CF0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CACERENO · PPG 1.17

TALAVERA CF · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Cacereno (H) 43.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +81.0%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.1%

Talavera CF (A) 26.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cacereno face Talavera CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cacereno a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Talavera CF 26%, so Cacereno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cacereno and 0.9 for Talavera CF (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cacereno are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.72 for Talavera CF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Cacereno vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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