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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Group 1 - 38
Tajonar Facilities Stadium· Pamplona
Saturday, May 23, 2026
16:30
Osasuna B
PPG 1.17
1-2
MISS
Merida
PPG 0.78
Draw· +12.3%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
37.8%
Odds: 2.05
EV: -22.5%
Draw
35.1%
Odds: 3.20
EV: +12.3%
Away
27.1%
Odds: 3.35
EV: -5.5%
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
35.0%
Odds: 2.15
-24.8%
Over 3.5
13.2%
Odds: 3.90
-29.1%
BTTS
48.6%
Odds: 1.85
-10.1%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Osasuna B
1.02
Merida
0.93
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
40%
O2.5/Under
53%
BTTS/No
62%
Score Hit
47%
ROI
-35.1%
Bet Hit
35%
(17 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.78)