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Osasuna B vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Osasuna B

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Merida

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.3%0-26.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.9%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 48.8% 2.05 -22.5%

Draw 35.1% 31.3% 3.20 +12.3%

Away win 27.1% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 46.5% 2.15 -24.8%

Over 3.5 13.2% 25.6% 3.90 -29.1%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna B1.0

Merida0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA B · PPG 1.17

MERIDA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna B (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -22.5%

Draw 35.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +12.3%

Merida (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna B face Merida in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna B a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Merida 27%, so Osasuna B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Osasuna B and 0.9 for Merida (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna B are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.78 for Merida. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Osasuna B vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions