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Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:30

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Osasuna

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.3%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.4%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-18.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Draw 33.6% 29.9% 3.35 +12.6%

Away win 21.8% 25.6% 3.90 -9.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% 46.5% 2.15 -18.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

BTTS 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Home O1.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 27.4% 3.65 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 12.7%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.3

Osasuna0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.31

OSASUNA · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.0%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +12.6%

Osasuna (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Osasuna in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 45% chance, the draw 34% and Osasuna 22%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Celta Vigo and 0.7 for Osasuna (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.87 for Osasuna. This match finished 1-2.

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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