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Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:30

Barcelona

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.6%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.0%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 88.5% 1.13 -25.5%

Draw 19.9% 11.5% 8.70 +43.9%

Away win 14.2% 6.7% 15.00 +67.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 76.9% 1.30 -30.1%

Over 3.5 34.2% 55.6% 1.80 -38.4%

BTTS 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 85.5% 1.17 -22.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 17.4% 5.75 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona2.2

Rayo Vallecano0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA · PPG 2.56

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 0.98

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -25.5%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +43.9%

Rayo Vallecano (A) 14.2%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +67.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona face Rayo Vallecano in Spain - La Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Rayo Vallecano 14%, so Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Barcelona and 0.8 for Rayo Vallecano (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.98 for Rayo Vallecano. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +57.3%. This match finished 5-2.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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