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Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

Atletico Madrid

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Villarreal

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.1%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-110.1%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.4% 1.91 +2.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Away O1.5 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Madrid2.0

Villarreal1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 2.25

VILLARREAL · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Madrid (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Villarreal (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Madrid face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Madrid a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Villarreal 22%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico Madrid and 1.0 for Villarreal (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.35 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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