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Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Athletic Club

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.6%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.3%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 42.7% 2.34 +23.8%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 22.8% 32.8% 3.05 -18.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 29.4% 26.7% 3.75 +6.2%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 42.0% 2.38 +16.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 35.1% 2.85 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celta Vigo1.7

Athletic Club0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.09

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celta Vigo (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +23.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Athletic Club (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celta Vigo face Athletic Club in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celta Vigo a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Athletic Club 23%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Celta Vigo and 0.9 for Athletic Club (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celta Vigo are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.87 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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