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Elche vs Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:30

Elche

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Barcelona

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.4%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.3%1-111.8%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 11.8% 8.50 +205.1%

Draw 28.6% 20.0% 5.00 +25.8%

Away win 35.5% 75.2% 1.33 -52.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 69.4% 1.44 -27.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 45.5% 2.20 -32.0%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 25.0% 4.00 +60.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 75.2% 1.33 -45.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elche1.4

Barcelona1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ELCHE · PPG 1.72

BARCELONA · PPG 1.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elche (H) 35.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +205.1%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +25.8%

Barcelona (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -52.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elche face Barcelona in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elche a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Barcelona 36%, so Elche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Elche and 1.4 for Barcelona (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elche are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.79 for Barcelona. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +113.2%. This match finished 0-5.

Elche vs Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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