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Real Sociedad vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Espanyol

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.6%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 53.5% 1.87 -20.3%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 33.8% 25.6% 3.90 +31.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.3% 58.8% 1.70 -7.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad1.6

Espanyol1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.52

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -20.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Espanyol (A) 33.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad face Espanyol in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Espanyol 34%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Sociedad and 1.2 for Espanyol (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.21 for Espanyol. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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