Today / Spain - La Liga / Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Sevilla

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 29.4% 3.40 +60.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 28.2% 48.1% 2.08 -24.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.8% 1.93 +3.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.9% 3.35 +5.5%

BTTS 54.4% 57.1% 1.75 -4.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 34.7% 2.88 +40.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 47.6% 2.10 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.4%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla1.7

Atletico Madrid1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA · PPG 1.65

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.31

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla (H) 47.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +60.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Atletico Madrid (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 28%, so Sevilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sevilla and 1.1 for Atletico Madrid (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.31 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +73.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions