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Athletic Club vs Sevilla Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sevilla

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.3%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 59.2% 1.69 -23.3%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 28.1% 19.2% 5.20 +27.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 29.1% 23.8% 4.20 +13.3%

BTTS 53.0% 47.6% 2.10 +11.3%

Home O1.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Away O1.5 34.8% 22.2% 4.50 +56.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.6

Sevilla1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.55

SEVILLA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -23.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Sevilla (A) 28.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Sevilla in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Sevilla 28%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletic Club and 1.1 for Sevilla (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.14 for Sevilla. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +56.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Athletic Club vs Sevilla Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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