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Osasuna vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:30

Osasuna

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Levante

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.2%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.9%1-19.1%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 55.6% 1.80 +7.6%

Draw 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Away win 16.7% 23.1% 4.33 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 35.3% 28.6% 3.50 +23.5%

BTTS 52.1% 54.6% 1.83 -4.7%

Home O1.5 63.9% 54.6% 1.83 +16.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna2.2

Levante0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 1.62

LEVANTE · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +7.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

Levante (A) 16.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Levante 17%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Osasuna and 0.9 for Levante (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.89 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Osasuna vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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