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Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 6 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 19:00

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.5%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.9%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 51.0% 1.96 -7.5%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 28.0% 27.0% 3.70 +2.2%

Over 2.5 53.6% 51.8% 1.93 +3.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

BTTS 54.2% 57.1% 1.75 -5.1%

Home O1.5 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 33.3% 3.00 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.2%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad1.6

Celta Vigo1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.77

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -7.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Celta Vigo (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Celta Vigo 28%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Sociedad and 1.0 for Celta Vigo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.49 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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