Today / Spain - La Liga / Alaves vs Villarreal

Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:30

Alaves

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Villarreal

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.4%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.1%1-110.3%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 33.3% 3.00 +57.8%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 23.8% 45.0% 2.22 -28.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

BTTS 55.0% 60.6% 1.65 -9.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 40.0% 2.50 +40.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 48.8% 2.05 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0✓ 9.1%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.9

Villarreal1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.71

VILLARREAL · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 52.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +57.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Villarreal (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Villarreal 24%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alaves and 1.1 for Villarreal (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.30 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions