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Osasuna vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:30

Osasuna

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Getafe

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.7%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.0%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 45.9% 2.18 +11.4%

Draw 26.5% 34.7% 2.88 -14.2%

Away win 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 33.3% 3.00 +39.5%

Over 3.5 27.6% 16.0% 6.25 +43.5%

BTTS 48.0% 41.7% 2.40 +15.2%

Home O1.5 44.6% 35.7% 2.80 +24.9%

Away O1.5 24.9% 22.2% 4.50 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0✓ 13.8%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna1.5

Getafe0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 1.51

GETAFE · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +11.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.2%

Getafe (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Getafe in Spain - La Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Getafe 22%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Osasuna and 0.9 for Getafe (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.12 for Getafe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Osasuna vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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