Today / Spain - La Liga / Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 19:00

Real Madrid

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-13.8%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.5%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.1%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-16.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 76.3% 1.31 -22.2%

Draw 24.1% 18.2% 5.50 +19.5%

Away win 16.5% 12.3% 8.10 +20.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 69.4% 1.44 -23.0%

Over 3.5 31.9% 47.6% 2.10 -33.0%

BTTS 47.7% 57.8% 1.73 -17.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Away O1.5 23.0% 25.3% 3.95 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid2.2

Real Sociedad0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.20

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -22.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.5%

Real Sociedad (A) 16.5%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV +20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 17%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Madrid and 0.8 for Real Sociedad (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.92 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions