K League 1

SOUTH KOREA · 51 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 4 JUL 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 51 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

43.1%

1X2

22/51

52.9%

O/U 2.5

27/51

45.1%

BTTS

23/51

47.1%

Exact score

24/51

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

38.9%

Hit rate

7/18

1.94

Avg odds

-38.0%

ROI

-6.8u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=12 41.7% HIT · AVG 2.05 · -32.9% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · -22.3% ROI

BTTS · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.86 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

50%

Hit

-28.5%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

40%

Hit

-33.6%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

43%

Hit

-28.9%

ROI

Match log

51 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 0 PICKS · 0 HIT · 0 MISS

4 JUL Daejeon Citizen vs Bucheon FC — NO PICK 2–2 —4 JUL Anyang vs Pohang Steelers — NO PICK 2–3 —4 JUL Jeonbuk vs Gangwon — NO PICK 1–2 —

May 2026 // 3 PICKS · 3 HIT · 0 MISS

17 MAY Jeju Utd vs Anyang — NO PICK 1–2 —17 MAY Jeonbuk vs Gimcheon Sangmu Home -10% 1–0 HIT 17 MAY Bucheon FC vs Pohang Steelers — NO PICK 2–0 —17 MAY Gangwon vs Ulsan — NO PICK 2–0 —16 MAY Daejeon Citizen vs Seoul — NO PICK 1–2 —16 MAY Incheon Utd vs Gwangju Home -7% 4–0 HIT 13 MAY Ulsan vs Jeju Utd — NO PICK 2–1 —13 MAY Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu — NO PICK 2–2 —13 MAY Bucheon FC vs Jeonbuk — NO PICK 0–0 —12 MAY Gangwon vs Daejeon Citizen — NO PICK 2–0 —12 MAY Incheon Utd vs Pohang Steelers — NO PICK 0–1 —12 MAY Gwangju vs Seoul Away -9% 0–1 HIT