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Jeonbuk vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 07:40

Jeonbuk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.0%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.5%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.3%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 21.9% 21.1% 4.75 +2.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0✓ 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk1.7

Gimcheon Sangmu0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK · PPG 2.00

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Gimcheon Sangmu (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Gimcheon Sangmu in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Gimcheon Sangmu 22%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jeonbuk and 0.9 for Gimcheon Sangmu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Gimcheon Sangmu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Jeonbuk vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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