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Jeonbuk vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 10:30

Jeonbuk

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Gangwon

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-114.1%0-25.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.3%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-16.2%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 44.4% 2.25 -14.7%

Draw 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

Away win 29.2% 29.9% 3.35 -1.3%

Over 2.5 34.9% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Home O1.5 34.0% 40.0% 2.50 -15.0%

Away O1.5 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.5%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk0.9

Gangwon0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK · PPG 2.14

GANGWON · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -14.7%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.3%

Gangwon (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Gangwon in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Gangwon 29%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jeonbuk and 0.8 for Gangwon (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Gangwon. This match finished 1-2.

Jeonbuk vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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