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Gwangju vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju

PPG 0.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Seoul

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-110.4%0-213.7%0-312.2%0-4+15.3%1 1-02.3%1-16.1%1-28.1%1-37.2%1-4+9.0%2 2-00.7%2-11.8%2-22.4%2-32.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.7% 11.1% 9.00 -2.2%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 67.1% 73.5% 1.36 -8.7%

Over 2.5 60.1% 52.6% 1.90 +14.2%

Over 3.5 40.8% 30.8% 3.25 +32.6%

BTTS 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob48.1%

A 67% / xG 0.6-2.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.7%

#2 0–3 12.2%

#3 0–1✓ 10.4%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 0–4 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.6

Seoul2.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 0.83

SEOUL · PPG 2.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 10.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -2.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Seoul (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Seoul in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 11% chance, the draw 22% and Seoul 67%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju and 2.7 for Seoul (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.29 for Seoul. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Gwangju vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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