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Gangwon vs Ulsan Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Gangwon

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ulsan

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.0%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-18.0%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

Draw 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.7%

Away win 25.7% 29.9% 3.35 -8.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 16.7% 26.3% 3.80 -21.9%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon1.2

Ulsan0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON · PPG 1.43

ULSAN · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

Chance this pick lands

49%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.17) strong but model favors Home (P=44.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.7%

Ulsan (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon face Ulsan in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Ulsan 26%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gangwon and 0.9 for Ulsan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.17 for Ulsan. This match finished 2-0.

Gangwon vs Ulsan Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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