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Daejeon Citizen vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.43 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Seoul

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-117.7%0-211.4%0-34.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.6%1-112.3%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.3%2-14.3%2-22.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 35.7% 2.80 -18.8%

Draw 30.7% 31.3% 3.20 -1.8%

Away win 44.9% 39.2% 2.55 +14.5%

Over 2.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

Over 3.5 14.0% 26.3% 3.80 -28.1%

BTTS 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.1%

A 45% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.7%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–2✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen0.7

Seoul1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.43

SEOUL · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 24.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.8%

Seoul (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Seoul in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 25% chance, the draw 31% and Seoul 45%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Daejeon Citizen and 1.3 for Seoul (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 2.38 for Seoul. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Daejeon Citizen vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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