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Bucheon FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Bucheon FC

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-121.5%0-29.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.2%1-111.3%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-03.5%2-13.0%2-21.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.6%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 27.4% 3.65 -10.1%

Draw 40.9% 33.3% 3.00 +22.7%

Away win 36.2% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 41.7% 2.40 -22.9%

Over 3.5 5.2% 21.1% 4.75 -45.2%

BTTS 41.8% 51.3% 1.95 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.8%

A 36% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 0–1 21.5%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC0.5

Pohang Steelers0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC · PPG 0.57

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

42%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.1%

Draw 40.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +22.7%

Pohang Steelers (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC a 23% chance, the draw 41% and Pohang Steelers 36%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Bucheon FC and 0.9 for Pohang Steelers (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.83 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Bucheon FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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