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Daejeon Citizen vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 10:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.38 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Bucheon FC

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.0%0-115.3%0-25.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.5%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.4%2-15.1%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 57.1% 1.75 -37.2%

Draw 32.5% 29.0% 3.45 +12.1%

Away win 31.6% 21.1% 4.75 +50.1%

Over 2.5 34.9% 47.6% 2.10 -26.7%

Over 3.5 12.4% 26.3% 3.80 -31.7%

BTTS 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

Home O1.5 33.7% 51.3% 1.95 -34.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.0%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 15.3%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen0.8

Bucheon FC0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.38

BUCHEON FC · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -37.2%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +12.1%

Bucheon FC (A) 31.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +50.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Bucheon FC in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Bucheon FC 32%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Daejeon Citizen and 0.7 for Bucheon FC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.43 for Bucheon FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Daejeon Citizen vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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