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Ulsan vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 10:30

Ulsan

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.0%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.5%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 52.6% 1.90 -24.0%

Draw 32.8% 29.0% 3.45 +13.2%

Away win 27.2% 25.3% 3.95 +4.5%

Over 2.5 41.5% 50.0% 2.00 -17.0%

Over 3.5 14.5% 28.2% 3.55 -29.1%

BTTS 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.1

Jeju Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.43

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.0%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.2%

Jeju Utd (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Jeju Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Jeju Utd 27%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulsan and 0.9 for Jeju Utd (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.67 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Ulsan vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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