Incheon Utd vs Gwangju Prediction & Tips

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South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 15 Sungui Arena Park· Incheon Saturday, May 16, 2026 10:00

Incheon Utd PPG 0.86

4-0 MISS

Gwangju PPG 0.29

BTTS· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.0%

Odds: 1.50 EV: -7.0%

Draw 23.6%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -5.5%

Away 14.5%

Odds: 7.20 EV: +2.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 24.3% Odds: 3.85 -3.9%

BTTS 48.6% Odds: 2.15 +4.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Incheon Utd

1.93

Gwangju

0.57

Model SuggestionHome -7.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -7.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: BTTS (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -73.5%

Bet Hit 17% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.29)