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Incheon Utd vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Incheon Utd

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gwangju

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-14.7%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.8%1-19.1%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-15.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Draw 23.6% 26.0% 3.85 -5.5%

Away win 14.5% 13.9% 7.20 +2.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd1.9

Gwangju0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 0.86

GWANGJU · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.5%

Gwangju (A) 14.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Gwangju in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 62% chance, the draw 24% and Gwangju 14%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Incheon Utd and 0.6 for Gwangju (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.29 for Gwangju. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Incheon Utd vs Gwangju Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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