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Incheon Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 14 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:30

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-114.9%0-27.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.1%2-16.1%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 38.5% 2.60 -9.8%

Draw 31.9% 32.3% 3.10 -1.1%

Away win 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

Over 2.5 34.7% 43.5% 2.30 -20.2%

Over 3.5 12.6% 23.1% 4.33 -27.3%

BTTS 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 14.9%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd0.9

Pohang Steelers1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.00

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.1%

Pohang Steelers (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Pohang Steelers 33%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Incheon Utd and 1.0 for Pohang Steelers (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Pohang Steelers. This match finished 0-1.

Incheon Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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