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Gangwon vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:30

Gangwon

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-115.0%0-27.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.0%2-16.0%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 33.4% 28.6% 3.50 +16.9%

Over 2.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

Over 3.5 12.5% 23.8% 4.20 -28.5%

BTTS 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 15.0%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon0.9

Daejeon Citizen1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON · PPG 1.17

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -25.4%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon face Daejeon Citizen in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Daejeon Citizen 33%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gangwon and 1.0 for Daejeon Citizen (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.17 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Gangwon vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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