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Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Vojvodina

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Radnik Surdulica

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.3%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.4%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Draw 21.0% 23.3% 4.30 -5.8%

Away win 15.9% 11.9% 8.40 +20.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Home O1.5 57.0% 67.6% 1.48 -15.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vojvodina2.0

Radnik Surdulica0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VOJVODINA · PPG 2.36

RADNIK SURDULICA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vojvodina (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -14.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -5.8%

Radnik Surdulica (A) 15.9%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vojvodina face Radnik Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vojvodina a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Radnik Surdulica 16%, so Vojvodina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vojvodina and 0.7 for Radnik Surdulica (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vojvodina are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.08 for Radnik Surdulica. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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