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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

FK Crvena Zvezda

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cukaricki

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-17.9%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-17.9%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 85.5% 1.17 -24.3%

Draw 19.4% 15.4% 6.50 +15.7%

Away win 15.8% 7.7% 13.00 +63.2%

Over 2.5 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 54.6% 1.83 -27.9%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 82.0% 1.22 -20.6%

Away O1.5 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.1%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Crvena Zvezda2.4

Cukaricki0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA · PPG 2.44

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.44 vs 1.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Crvena Zvezda (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -24.3%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +15.7%

Cukaricki (A) 15.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +63.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Crvena Zvezda face Cukaricki in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Cukaricki 16%, so FK Crvena Zvezda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.8 for Cukaricki (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Crvena Zvezda are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.36 for Cukaricki. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +69.8%. This match finished 4-0.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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