Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan

Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FK Partizan

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-110.6%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.5%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 25.6% 3.90 +56.4%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 32.4% 55.6% 1.80 -41.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 33.5% 29.4% 3.40 +13.9%

Away O1.5 35.6% 55.6% 1.80 -35.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lucani1.2

FK Partizan1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.38

FK PARTIZAN · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lucani (H) 40.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +56.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

FK Partizan (A) 32.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -41.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lucani face FK Partizan in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lucani a 40% chance, the draw 28% and FK Partizan 32%, so Mladost Lucani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mladost Lucani and 1.1 for FK Partizan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lucani are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for FK Partizan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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